Southeast Asia's PV market to lead global growth
Southeast Asia's PV industry will continue to grow, but this will depend greatly on the policy directives of the various Asian economies, say panellists...
Strong growth is expected of the photovoltaics market in Southeast Asia, even though the building of several manufacturing plants was delayed in 2011 due to the floods in Thailand. However, these plants were completed this year, said Ms Jessi
ca Jin from IMS Research, a market research and consultancy for the electronics industry.
Ms Jin was speaking at the PV Asia-Pacific Conference and referring to IMS Research's latest report which covers both supply-side dynamics and demand-led scenarios for future growth of PV markets in the region. Two factors were contributing to the fast growth rate of Southeast Asia's PV market: The sharp reduction in PV module prices; and the fact that more market players globally are joining the fray. For the rest of the world, the PV market is growing at an average of 17 percent per annum (refer to table below).
Ms Jin noted that with more feed-in tariff (FiT) or incentive schemes expected to be introduced by governments in Southeast Asia, the result was that "countries with high retail electricity prices are close to getting grid parity".
In terms of PV demand in the Southeast Asian countries (see table below), Thailand is expected to lead the market while Indonesia also has several big projects in the pipeline. This includes a plan to install solar systems for 3,400 households in rural Eastern Indonesia.
On the technology front, IMS expects crystalline modules to dominate the market going forward, with stronger demand boosted by its increasingly cheaper prices. On the contrary, thin-film modules, which had a 35 percent market share in 2011, are expected to continue losing market share as a result of weaker price competitiveness.
The research also sketched out expectations on the best- and worst-case scenarios within the industry--with the worst-case reflecting a 5 percent per annum growth from 2011 to 2016; and the best case reflecting more support from the governments, and the industry witnessing quicker grid parity (see table below).
In summary, the Southeast Asia PV industry will continue to grow. But due to varying government policies and directions, the pace of growth in the individual markets will depend on the policy directives of the various countries.
By :Serene Fong, EMA