Nuclear energy provides about 16 percent of the globe’s electricity. In comparison, fossil fuels, which contribute to global warming through emissions of greenhouse gases, generate about 66 percent of the world’s electricity.
Global electricity demand is projected to double by 2030 and triple by 2050, based on business-as-usual usage. Much of this demand growth will occur in the developing world.
Decisions leaders make today about where to invest in various energy sources will have a lasting effect because the life of most power plants extends beyond 40 years.
How much could global nuclear energy consumption grow over the next four decades"wedge" because of the wedge or triangular shape of the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions plotted over time.) Each wedge technology, if fully employed, would reduce carbon emissions by a billion tons per year by 2050.
According to the Princeton study, employing seven of these wedges in equal proportions would stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the current level. Each wedge would contribute a relatively modest contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Although Pacala and Socolow's study remains neutral about the growth of nuclear energy, they include it as an option among their 15 energy wedges. The nuclear wedge would include 700 gigawatts or about seven hundred large commercial reactors in addition to the current nuclear-generated electricity. Adding this amount to the 370 gigawatts presently used would roughly equal the MIT base growth scenario.
Because almost all of the current reactor fleet would require replacement by mid-century, the Princeton and MIT growth scenarios would require about two new reactors to come online every month over the next forty years. Thus, these growth scenarios would pose quite significant challenges.
Many countries, especially in parts of Europe and Asia, have proposed ambitious plans for a substantial expansion of nuclear power production. Globally, about 30 reactors are under construction or have been ordered to be built. But it remains uncertain how many of these reactors will be built and whether many more will be constructed to S. Pacala and R. Socolow, with an ageing fleet. Today, about 30 countries are harnessing nuclear energy in about 440 commercial reactors. While the United States leads the world in the number of operating reactors at 103, it does not lead in the proportion of electricity generated by nuclear energy.
With 59 reactors, France produces about 78 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, a larger proportional amount than any other country. Even in France, however, nuclear energy has not ensured energy independence. Use of nuclear energy has nevertheless allowed France to eliminate oil use in electricity production. Even so, the transportation sector consumes large amounts of oil. France’s greenhouse gas emissions have not levelled off, but the rate of increase is less than it would have been without nuclear energy.
Other European countries are looking to expand or at least maintain their current use of nuclear energy. In the UK, 23 commercial nuclear reactors are operating, and Prime Minister Tony Blair’s government has recently signalled interest in building new reactors. However, in late November 2006, a British government official cautioned that the United Kingdom will likely not have a new nuclear unit built before 2020. Because the fleet of British nuclear plants is rapidly nearing retirement, the UK will probably experience a deficit of nuclear-generated electricity prior to operation of new reactors.
In contrast, Finland has already begun to build a new reactor to add to its four existing reactors that produce about 25 percent of its electricity, though the new reactor project has experienced significant delays. In neighbouring Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin has set his sights on a major growth of nuclear energy. Russia presently has 30 commercial nuclear reactors producing 16 percent of its electricity.
Full implementation of Putin’s proposal would increase that share to 25 percent within the next twenty years. As another sign of potential renewal, some European countries that had committed to phasing out use of nuclear energy, such as Germany and Sweden, have been reconsidering those decisions.
In contrast, Italy and Spain remain opposed to new nuclear reactors. In 1987, Italy passed a law against new nuclear plants after the Chernobyl accident. In January, Spanish President José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero said: "Nuclear energy keeps on producing serious problems," and ruled out plans to expand nuclear power production. He called for a European energy policy to develop renewable energy sources.
While a few countries in Asia rely significantly on nuclear-generated electricity, most of the continent derives its electricity needs primarily from fossil fuels. With 54 reactors, Japan leads Asia in use of nuclear energy, which generates about one-third of Japan’s electricity. South Korea and Taiwan have used nuclear power for decades to meet a significant portion (presently about 40 percent and 15 percent, respectively) of their electricity needs.
China and India, the world’s two most populous countries, have employed nuclear power for many years, but they have yet to meet more than a small fraction (2 to 3 percent) of their electricity production from this source. While Beijing and New Delhi have announced plans for building several nuclear power plants in the coming years, these governments are still not planning for nuclear energy to meet more than a relatively small fraction of their electricity needs. For example, by 2020, China is aiming for about a doubling of the contribution that nuclear makes to its electricity sector or roughly 4 percent of its total electricity generation.
Both Beijing and New Delhi are planning for a far greater use of coal-fired power plants because coal provides an indigenous, abundant, and cheap fuel. Over the next 10 years, China and India are expected to build as many as 560 and 210 coal-fired plants, respectively. Eight coal-fired plants now provide about 80 percent of China’s and 70 percent of India’s electricity needs. These percentages would likely grow under Beijing and New Delhi’s current plans.
Thus, in the absence of efforts to build more efficient coal-fired plants and to capture greenhouse gases from these plants, China and India will significantly exacerbate global warming. Nuclear power plant construction cannot occur rapidly enough in the next 10 years in those countries to replace the planned coal-fired plants. While state-owned nuclear enterprises such as those in China, France, India, and Russia can have greater control over nuclear power plant construction than privately owned companies such as those in the United States, such control does not necessarily mean that more plants will be built.
In the foreseeable future, nuclear energy is not a major part of the solution to further countering global warming or energy insecurity. Expanding nuclear energy use to make a relatively modest contribution to combating climate change would require constructing nuclear plants at a rate so rapid as to create shortages in building materials, trained personnel, and safety controls.
Furthermore, while the nuclear industry is only structured to produce electricity, the existing abundant and cheap fossil fuels provide
readily usable energy for electricity, heating, and transportation needs.
Article reproduced from Nuclear energy: Balancing benefits and risks (pdf), Council on Foreign Relations, April 2007
By : Charles D. Ferguson