During the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the loss of over 25,000 lives and major damage to parts of the country was overshadowed by news concerning the Fukushima nuclear power plant incident. Exaggerated reports prompted a debate on the wisdom of nuclear power generation, as well as negative sentiments in Europe and North America towards the expansion of nuclear power sectors.
These developments will not likely have a significant impact on the expansion of the Asian nuclear power sector. In fact, the region is determined to continue expanding its nuclear sector as the pre-Fukushima fundamental factors driving the expansion are still valid and will likely continue to remain so.
Reports on the Fukushima accident have portrayed it as another Chernobyl. This unrealistic picture has created fears concerning the negative effects of nuclear plants. It is thus important to analyse the Fukushima accident objectively in order to understand why Asia remains committed to its nuclear projects.
Background
The Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP) survived an unprecedented 9.1 magnitude earthquake, only to be damaged by the accompanying tsunami. The tsunami damaged the cooling system and its backup systems, which caused reactor overheating and the explosion of built-up hydrogen. The existence of containment structures around the cores prevented massive leakage of radioactive material into the environment. This is unlike Chernobyl, when the explosion of its core released a large amount of radioactive smoke into the atmosphere. The released radiation affected both the surrounding region as well as other parts of Europe. The FNPP's containment structures prevented a similar release of radioactive material, but a leak through the cooling system led to a release of material estimated at about 10 percent of that of Chernobyl in a much smaller area in the FNPP's vicinity.
To date, neither the Japanese nuclear authorities nor the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have reported any deaths, injuries or medical complications caused by radiation exposure among the Japanese population. While clean-up will possibly take decades, the accident now seems to be under control. Measurements of radiation in Japan and elsewhere have not detected high levels of radiation dangerous to health. The Fukushima accident is thus not a case on par with Chernobyl, although it has been significant enough to raise public concerns.
Asian nuclear projects
Factors contributing to renewed interest in nuclear energy (over fossil energy) across Asia include air pollution, global warming (caused mainly by CO2 emitted by fossil fuels), a heavy reliance on imported oil and to a lesser extent gas with various negative implications--pointing towards recognition of the need to diversify the region's energy mix. The absence of nuclear-related disasters since Chernobyl has mainly calmed legitimate concerns about nuclear energy.
Asia's interest in nuclear energy has manifested itself in about 100 nuclear projects under-construction or planned. China accounts for the bulk of these projects with the largest number of ongoing projects worldwide (24), followed by South Korea (6) and India (4). In Southeast Asia, Vietnam has embarked on constructing a power plant consisting of four nuclear reactors whose first one is scheduled to be operational by 2020.
Asian reaction to the Fukushima accident
In the Asia-Pacific region, there is no indication of serious plans to reverse or downsize the regional nuclear power programme.
Countries with active nuclear plans have confined themselves to taking safety precautionary measures to appease the people's 'concerns and have remained committed to their nuclear programmes despite Fukushima. The main reasons for such commitments include a lack of adequate domestic fossil energy resources, leading to a heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels (oil, gas and/or coal). Other reasons include the financial, economic, political and security implications of such reliance for net energy importers, a rapid depletion of fossil energy-rich countries' domestic reserves, a need for the diversification of the energy mix in the Asian countries and the necessity of decreasing greenhouse gas emissions to curb global warming.
Such commitment to nuclear energy is evident in the following summary of the reaction to the Fukushima accident in the Asia-Pacific region.
- China has not stopped construction of its ongoing nuclear projects, nor has it made any plan to halt its 100 projects under consideration. In the wake of Fukushima, the Chinese government suspended approval for new nuclear power stations for a year to revisit safety standards, but subsequently reaffirmed its goal to develop nuclear power as a clean energy source while stressing the safety of the existing facilities. China plans to have 66 nuclear power plants by 2020, with a total generating capacity of about 66MW, which will account for 6 percent of China's total power capacity.
- Similarly, Taiwan, South Korea and Vietnam have also reiterated their commitment to their nuclear programmes, with no plans to suspend the construction of new nuclear reactors. In response to the Fukushima disaster, the respective governments have emphasised a safety review of current response measures while prioritising public safety.
- In post-Fukushima Japan, the government has not made firm statements indicating a scale-back of its nuclear sector. Prior to the accident, Japan had 55 commercial nuclear power reactors in operation producing 30 percent of the country's electricity, and currently has a new reactor under construction. It is highly unlikely that Japan will opt for a long-term freeze on nuclear power given the absence of alternative technologies capable of providing greenhouse gas emission-free energy at a large-scale.
Countries with no active nuclear programmes
In the pre-Fukushima era, countries such as Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines had indicated interest in adding nuclear to the energy mix without specifying a deadline.
Of them, negative or cautionary reactions to Fukushima have been confined to Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Yet, none of these countries have an active nuclear programme, so abandoning their nuclear programmes will not have a tangible impact on the regional nuclear industry. Another interesting point is that none of these countries have totally removed nuclear energy as an option.
Indonesia, on the other hand, has not yet given up its envisaged nuclear programme. The Indonesian government has, in fact, dismissed the Fukushima accident as a strong reason for shelving its nuclear future. Its National Nuclear Energy Agency had pointed out that concerns about a disaster like Japan's were misplaced because Indonesia's future plants would use technology far more advanced than that of the Fukushima plant built in the 1970s.
Concluding remarks
Reflecting global realities, Asian nations have long considered nuclear energy as a necessary component of the region's sustainable energy mix. This is especially relevant today given the current level of underdevelopment of clean renewables. Proponents for continued use of fossil fuels refer to the limits of renewables in providing reliable base-load power to discourage switching from fossil energy to non-fossil energy. Yet, nuclear energy in its current state can provide large-scale power on a reliable basis.
Concerns about the safety of nuclear reactors are legitimate and being addressed through a variety of policies. While safety concerns are valid, they are not sufficient grounds for dismissing nuclear energy. Other than Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima, there have not been any reported cases of any nuclear accident of significance since the 1950s when the commercial use of nuclear energy started. Among these, only Chernobyl has caused death, radioactive-related diseases and damage to the surrounding environment. This is a good record for the 441 plants in operation worldwide as of 2010.
Operating 55 nuclear reactors, Japan has had only one major accident. Fukushima was caused by a devastating tsunami destroying the plant's cooling systems located underground. Placing cooling systems of similar reactors at a higher altitude can eliminate the possibility of another Fukushima. Japan's experience and that of other Asian countries with major nuclear power sectors indicate that there are measures that could be put in place to ensure the safe operation of nuclear power generators for years to come. The Fukushima accident caused by a natural disaster has not been a game-changer in the Asian nuclear power sector. Unconvinced by arguments equating nuclear energy with nuclear disaster, Asian nations have compelling reasons for continuing nuclear power generation and will do so for decades to come.
BY: Dr Hooman Peimani