Artificial intelligence (AI) has evolved from academic study to a trillion-dollar industry, driving unprecedented growth in data centre electricity demand. Yet, AI also offers transformative solutions for energy efficiency and emissions reduction.
At SIEW Thinktank Roundtables, Mary Warlick, Deputy Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), presented the agency’s comprehensive analysis of AI's impact on global energy systems. The presentation examined data centre electricity consumption patterns, infrastructure challenges, critical mineral requirements, and AI's potential to optimise energy systems—revealing both the scale of the challenge and the magnitude of opportunities ahead.
Navigating the growth in AI infrastructure and electricity demand
Ms Warlick outlined three converging trends ushering in a new age of AI: exponentially falling costs of powerful GPUs, surging data availability from internet growth, and breakthroughs in training techniques enabling ever-larger models.
This surge has raised concerns about growing electricity demand, sharpened by two unusual characteristics: data centres are spatially concentrated and cluster closer to cities than other energy infrastructure.
Global electricity consumption projections and regional impacts
The IEA's modelling projects data centre electricity consumption will more than double to 2030. AI is the major driver, with electricity consumption in AI-optimised data centres set to more than quadruple by 2030.
Strain to energy infrastructure continues to grow
Infrastructure strain is already evident. Connection queues for new data centre projects are lengthy and complex. New transmission lines connecting data centres to grids can take eight years to build. Wait times for grid components and power generation equipment like gas turbines have spiked.
Mapping all data centre projects globally, the IEA's modelling suggests up to 20 percent of planned projects could be delayed. However, challenges can be met through increased dialogue and cooperation, electricity supply and grid investment, and enhanced data centre efficiency and flexibility.
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