A report released by PricewaterhouseCoopers says that global carbon intensity fell by less than 1 percent since the economic downturn in 2008. The improvement in 2011 was just 0.7 percent. This is compared with the more than 5 percent-a-year cut that is needed to avoid dangerous impacts from global warming.
"Not once since World War 2 has the world achieved that rate of decarbonisation," says Partner Leo Johnson. "Even doubling our current rate, would still lead to emissions consistent with 6ÂșC of warming by the end of the century."
Johnson was writing in PwC's Low Carbon Economy Index, which studied the rate of decarbonisation of the global economy that is needed to limit warming to 2ÂșC. The latest report recommends a six-fold improvement in the rate of reduction needed to stop global temperatures from rising this century.
The study noted that while it is unrealistic to expect that action could be stepped up immediately, it might be achievable in the longer term.
Total emissions from the E7--China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Turkey--grew by 7.4 percent in 2011, while those of the G7 economies fell by 2.0 percent. The UK, Germany and France reduced carbon intensity by over 6 percent.
"The irony is that a key reason for lower energy use was the milder winter in the region. Both UK and France also witnessed increased generation in low emissions nuclear power, whereas Germany's exit ;from nuclear is reflected in its relatively lesser decline in emissions," PwC said.
But the reductions were offset by Australia's 6.7 percent increase, a large part of this due restocking of coal. Similarly, strong economic growth in China and India halted decarbonisation in the last decade. GDP growth was closely coupled with rapid emissions growth, despite commitments to significantly reduce carbon intensity.
Indonesia's forest emissions grew significantly between 1990 and 2010, while GDP per capita increased only slightly. The country, however, managed to reduce carbon intensity by 5.2 percent last year.
Emissions in the US fell by 1.9 percent due to the shift from coal towards shale gas in its fuel mix and more efficient vehicles. But increasingly, the shale boom may be detrimental to long-term efforts to fight global warming.
A worldwide hunt for gas reserves had already begun in developing economies such as China, India, Mexico and Russia, despite concerns about the possible environmental impacts of fracking, a controversial drilling technique.
An over-reliance of gas could lock in the dependence on fossil fuels in these economies with increasing energy demand, and low gas prices may reduce the incentive for investment in lower-carbon nuclear power and renewable energy.
PwC noted that economic pressures may make it ;much harder to finance the transition towards a low carbon economy, and doubted the world's developed economies would fulfill carbon reduction targets for 2020. Analyses of the pledges made at the Copenhagen UN summit on climate change in 2009 suggest that they are collectively insufficient to meet a 2ÂșC target.
Target reduction in the US is equivalent to replacing 100 percent of coal power generation by gas, and in Japan, removing all industrial sector emissions. All coal-fired power plants must be shut down in the United Kingdom, and the EU-15 faces the challenge of removing all of UK's current emissions.
Nations will convene at the UN summit in Doha this month to discuss climate change targets, but regardless of the outcome one thing is clear: Businesses, governments and communities across the world need to plan for a warming world--not just 2°C, but 4°C, or;even 6°C.
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