Global oil demand to peak by 2040, as heavy-duty vehicles turn to alternative fuels: ExxonMobil

Total oil demand will peak by 2040 as heavy-duty vehicles become more reliant on alternative fuels, predicts ExxonMobil in its 2019 Energy & Carbon Summary. This will be one of the report’s projected scenarios, based on ExxonMobil’s 2018 Outlook for Energy. According to this projection, improvements in efficiency and the penetration of alternative fuels will cause the total oil demand of heavy-duty vehicles to peak prior to 2025.

The hypothetical scenario requires the transition of the global vehicle fleet and infrastructure build-out to accelerate significantly. This transition assumes nearly 100 per cent electrification of light commercial vehicles, 70 per cent alternative fuels in medium commercial vehicles, and 20 per cent penetration of alternative fuels in heavy-duty vehicles. Alternative fuels span electricity, biofuels, gas, and hydrogen.

Other notable industry projections to 2040 from the report:

• Projected growth rates for renewable energies are strong, averaging four per cent for non-bioenergy and 4.5 per cent for bioenergy per year. Worldwide electricity from solar and wind will increase about 400 per cent.
• Natural gas demand is expected to increase about 0.9 per cent per year on average. Increased electrification would lead to more demand for natural gas for both electricity generation and hydrogen production.
• Coal will see less use as consumption shifts to other fuel types. The projection for coal is an average decline of about 2.4 per cent per year.

For more long-term projections of the global energy landscape, please read the 2019 Energy & Carbon Summary.