During the SIEW Energy Insights session on 'Enhancing Policy Guidance through Improved Forecasting', industry leaders discussed ways to ground forecasting in reality and enable policymakers to develop more informed, inclusive, resilient, and effective policies.
Moderated by Liu Xiaowei, Asia Director and Senior Advisor to the Secretary General, World Energy Council, the session highlighted that quantitative models are necessary but not sufficient: increasingly, policymakers must account for behavioural, political and social dynamics.
Recent years have highlighted the limitations of current energy forecasting methods. Andreas Overland, Partner, RystadEnergy, emphasised that while forecasting models are powerful, they risk oversimplifying the reality on the ground. He explained that using system-dynamics modelling helps simulate these interactions and the lead times between decisions and market effects—ensuring forecasts better capture how policy signals impact energy systems.
Manu Bhaskaran, Founding CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors, urged policymakers to move beyond deterministic projections. Scenario planning should integrate fiscal paths and technology risks, while taking into consideration the complexities of the evolving energy landscape.
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