The global natural gas industry will experience robust development up till 2050, with long-term gas demand reaching almost 4,800 billion cubic metres, projects Equinor in their report Energy Perspectives 2019. This is a 33 per cent increase from gas demand in 2016. Both in the short- and long-term, Asia remains the main driving force for global gas demand, led by China and India.
Large-scale imports will be required to meet this growing demand in Asia. Russian and Central Asian pipeline exports reaching 95 billion cubic metres a year by 2025, with the possibility of further expansion.
Asia’s gas supply will still depend heavily on LNG market growth, with LNG imports in Asia expected to rise. However, more still needs to be done to ensure new LNG capacity, such as adequate price signals to encourage more capital investment.
Here are three other predictions from the report:
1. Energy demand is expected to grow significantly in Asia by 2050. In absolute terms, India will see the largest growth, followed by China. The fastest growing regions are Southeast Asia and India.
2. There will be large changes in the fuel mix by 2050. Fossil fuel share declines to 67 per cent of total primary energy demand, with oil dipping to 26 per cent, gas making up 24 per cent and coal dropping to 17 per cent. New renewables will grow its share to 12 percent.
3. Oil demand will peak in 2030. Even with robust growth in the next few years, oil demand will eventually peak by 2030. This is due to electrification, particularly in transport, as well as efficiency gains in the petrochemical, aviation and shipping industries.
For more insight into the future of energy in the short and long term, please read Energy Perspectives 2019.